Interview with John Stanley
Radio 2UE, Sydney
6 August 2009
SUBJECTS: Jobs data; Malcolm Turnbull and Utegate; Liberal leadership
STANLEY:
Here is the Treasurer.
TREASURER:
Good afternoon John.
STANLEY:
Better than expected figures?
TREASURER:
Well I certainly think it's welcome news, it's certainly very encouraging in terms of many people out there who are worried about employment. But the fact is we still have some very substantial challenges ahead.
STANLEY:
You've got to talk all of this down but isn't it possible that even the optimistic predictions that Access Economics that we may get to 7.5 per cent unemployment - less than the Treasury forecasts - might even be too pessimistic. That we may see unemployment peak far below that, isn't that possible?
TREASURER:
Well of course Access were saying at Budget time that our forecasts then were too optimistic and they were much more pessimistic. I guess the point that I would make is that we do have a fragile international environment. It's true that in the United States there are signs of stabilisation, it's also true that around the world governments which have put in place economic stimulus are having some impact- that's the case certainly in China and certainly here our economic stimulus is supporting employment. But I think there's other things to take into account here as well. You know I have been really encouraged by the extent to which we as a country have pulled together, particularly at the work place. Employers and Employees have cooperated, and I think what you can see in these figures is that there is also a reduction in hours worked. And what that means is that employers have gone to great lengths to keep Labour on, but there will be people in employment who are working less hours than otherwise they would want to work.
STANLEY:
Yeah so the reduction in full time jobs is 16,000, you've got 48,000 new part time jobs, so people are working as you say shorter hours and employers are keeping them on. If that is the case then mightn't we see ourselves through this with unemployment lower than anyone had predicted?
TREASURER:
Well I would certainly hope that's the case John, but it's just too early to make that call because we are going to live with the global recession for some time to come, and we will see that in a reduction in business investment, and we will see that in the reduction of the terms of trade – that is the prices paid for other countries by for our commodity exports. So those things will work their way through the economy and that's why unemployment if you like is termed a lagging indicator and why unemployment will probably continue to rise for some time yet. The most important thing I think is to keep the economic stimulus in place. It is certainly supporting employment, certainly supporting small business, but most importantly, I think, adding to confidence, and confidence is an important part of this result today.
STANLEY:
It's just that we're used to politicians claiming credit for just about everything and yet you seem to be out there leading the charge to dampen expectations and to talk down all the people who are suggesting that things are looking much, much better.
TREASURER:
No I'm just being realistic John, and from day one both the Prime Minister and I have been realistic. And at times we've been accused of being too optimistic because there have been others out there who have been too pessimistic. It's simply a feature of this global recession that there is a lot of volatility around, but we moved early and we moved in a powerful way to put in place economic stimulus because we knew there was going to be a very substancial threat to employment. And of course we've kept customers walking through the doors of small businesses, and what we can see in this result is that, that has had some impact. But I also think that it owes much to the co operation that we've seen on the ground and the fact that Australian's have worked together to put in place arrangements which have supported people in employment. What were doing also in to the future is we've got seventy per cent of our stimulus in direct investment, in nation building infrastructure and that is going to flow through our economy for the rest of this year and next year. Because we do know the IMF is still predicting major advanced economies to shrink by almost four per cent this year – so there is still a big challenge out there.
STANLEY:
Yeah, so you don't want us getting ahead of ourselves because things may turn worse. We don't know do we?
TREASURER:
Well we just know the global environment is fragile and we just have the forecasts out there of major advanced economies shrinking by a substantial amount this year, that's just a reality. But sure we can welcome and celebrate the fact that we are getting some better results domestically, that's a terrific thing, I hope that remains the case, but we just have to be realistic about where we are in relationship to the rest of the world.
STANLEY:
A couple of other quick ones if I can. You must feel a sense of personal vindication over the so-called Ozcar affair
TREASURER:
Well both the Prime Minister and I have said from day one that we have handled these matters absolutely appropriately and that's what the Auditor General has found. I think what this demonstrates is that Mr Turnbull can't be believed in just about anything that he says.
STANLEY:
Was Mr Grech a rogue public servant or is there a possibility of other public servants in your own department who may be behaving in the same way?
TREASURER:
Well I think it's very clear from the correspondence, ironically released by Mr Turnbull the day before yesterday that Mr Grech has been working very closely with the Liberal's not just Mr Turnbull, and that may have been the case for a period of time.
STANLEY:
Would there be others?
TREASURER:
Well I don't know, I have great respect for the Public Service; they have worked particularly in the Treasury Department, really hard over the last eighteen months and particularly over the last nine months. I think that very much Mr Grech is the exception in the sense that his activities and particularly the role that he has played politically doesn't reflect the approach of many hard working people in our Department. He is certainly worked very closely with Mr Turnbull, who bears prime responsibility for going out there and mounting a smear campaign against the Prime Minister and the Treasurer. At a time when we should have been discussing and talking about the economic future of this country he spent the whole week day in and day out, hour after hour, throwing mud, and I don't think the Australian people appreciated that. And I think it said to the Australian people that Mr Turnbull didn't have the character or judgement for leadership.
STANLEY:
Can he survive?
TREASURER:
That's entirely a matter for the Liberal Party.
STANLEY:
What did you personally think, forget the political answer, what did you personally think when you heard that they're talking about Andrew Robb as the potential Leader?
TREASURER:
Well I just thought that it would be a typical Liberal move, to move to someone who is an enthusiast for Workchoices and a someone who's a climate change denier. I mean they have learnt nothing.
STANLEY:
Okay Mr Swan I thankyou.
TREASURER:
Thankyou.
